G04 - Population Dynamics in Pre-state Farming Societies

Session Organisers: Peter Turchin, Daniel Kondor

Category: Population - Network

Session Abstract: While theorists originally assumed that population dynamics of early farmers can be described by a logistic S-shaped curve, evidence is accumulating that initial increases were often followed by population declines. This pattern is evident both in population proxies based on archaeological indicators, and in regional and continental-scale studies of aggregated radiocarbon (14C) dates. In the session we want to address the question whether boom/bust cycles are a universal feature of early farming societies, and if not, what is the relative frequency of such dynamics? We welcome comparative studies, either among different regions, or among different population proxies in the same region. To facilitate a meaningful discussion and debate, we also highly encourage the participation from scholars whose work shows evidence against boom/bust patterns in any region. In line with the above, we aim to have a session that covers the following topics in a balanced way: - Case studies of estimating population numbers and main conclusions. - Case studies from outside of Europe specifically Africa would be very welcome. - Studies that perform a systematic comparison among world regions and argue for or against universal patterns. - Studies that compare 14C-based results with other proxies; studies that take a multi-proxy approach and estimate population numbers from a combination of evidence. - Studies that build and present large-scale databases of available evidence and develop methodology for preprocessing, processing and analyzing the data in them. - Studies that present and evaluate possible causes of population declines.

Room: C

08/11/2024

Start Time - End Time	Authors	Title
10:00 - 10:20	Peter Turchin	A Paradigm Shift in Understanding Human Population Dynamics
10:20 - 10:40	Jacob Freeman, Judson Finley, Erick Robinson, Adolfo Gil	A multi-scalar study of population growth dynamics in small-scale societies
10:40 - 11:00	Joe Roe, Martin Hinz	Estimating the Prevalance of Post-Agricultural Population Declines through the Global Radiocarbon Record
11:00 - 11:20	Johannes Müller	Population densities and social levelling mechanisms: from small to mega-sites

Lunch Break

Start Time - End Time	Authors	Title
13:00 - 13:20	Hinz Martin, Roe Joe	ESTER: Estimation of the prehistoric population of Eurasia based on a large number of records
13:20 - 13:40	Daniel Kondor, Peter Turchin	Approaching population proxies from a modeling perspective
13:40 - 14:00	Ian Kuijt, Arkadiusz Marciniak	Reconsidering arguments for Near Eastern Neolithic high population density, population growth, and early urbanism
14:00 - 14:20	Michael J. O’brien, Simon Carrignon, Bisserka Gaydarska, John Chapman, Brian Buchanan	Modeling Cultural Responses to Disease Spread in Neolithic Trypillia Mega-settlements

Coffee Break

Start Time - End Time	Authors	Title
14:45 - 15:05	Giacomo Bilotti	Population dynamic in the southwestern Baltic during the Neolithic and Bronze Age
15:05 - 15:25	Hilpert Johanna, Fischer Anna-Leena, Scharl Silviane, Kern Oliver A., Wegener Christian	Moving on? Early Neolithic Population and Settlement Potential in Central Europe (LBK; 5400 – 4950 BCE)
15:25 - 15:45	Detlef Gronenborn, Daniel Kondor, Peter Turchin	A multiscale approach to understanding boom-bust dynamics in European Neolithic societies
15:45 - 16:05	Kaarel Sikk, Aivar Kriiska, Valter Lang, Mari Tõrv	Exploring the population gap of the transition period from the Stone Age to the Bronze Age in Estonia with radiocarbon data

Coffee Break

Start Time - End Time	Authors	Title
16:30 - 16:50	Frantisek Trampota, Vaclav Hrncir, Petr Kvetina	Reconstruction of population dynamics in early farming societies using Bayesian modelling of C14 settlement data. Case study from Morava River basin, Central Europe
16:50 - 17:10	René Ohlrau	Prehistoric Progress: Innovations, Population Growth, and Human Well-Being among Cucuteni-Trypillia Societies
17:10 - 17:30	Timothy Kohler, Darcy Bird	Population, subsistence, and wealth dynamics in three precocious, non-state North American societies: Exploring and Enhancing Malthus-Boserup models
17:30 - 17:50	Robert Drennan, Adam Berrey, Christian Peterson	Demography in Non-state Farming Societies Is More than Just Population Size